The Climate Ciranda
2030 is just around the corner and with it the prediction of a climate circus. There's nothing new about this, but now, in addition to the climatic factors inherent to the Earth, the behavior of the Sun's magnetic waves is also being considered. It's getting harder and harder to ignore the predictions and believe that we're just going to carry on living the same old life.
Scientists have observed a notable reduction in the Sun's activity based on the number of spots on its surface. The period of reduction in solar radiation predicted for 2030 is equivalent in intensity to the period known as the “Maunder Minimum”, which occurred at the end of the 17th century during a 70-year interval of extremely low temperatures known as the Little Ice Age in Europe. The remarkable progress that has been observed in the study of the Sun's magnetic waves lends a certain robustness to this prediction.
There are also climate forecasts based on the modification of the ocean current pattern of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation). It is estimated that between 2025 and 2090 there will begin a period of increased frequency of tsunamis, hurricanes, cold and heat waves, changes in the tropical rain belt and a cooling of the climate in much of Europe, the USA and Canada due to these changes in the currents.
The AMOC is the most important current system in regulating the Earth's climate. Wind-driven ocean surface currents carry heat from the tropics towards the Arctic, where these waters cool. Part of it freezes and expels the salt from its composition, while the rest of the waters become more saline and therefore denser, plunging to greater depths in the Arctic Ocean. These cold, dense waters return in the form of bottom currents towards the tropics, where they will once again warm up and rise to the surface.
As the Earth's climate changes, there has been a rise in the average temperature of the Arctic and the consequent melting of the polar ice caps. As a result, more fresh water is being dumped into the oceans, reducing their salinity and altering the stability of the Arctic's downward currents. As the AMOC behaves like a conveyor belt in the seas, the disturbance of the currents in the Arctic induces instability in the entire system of currents and in the distribution of heat on the planet.
Most of the measurements taken in ocean currents were acquired in the Gulf Stream currents, which are part of the AMOC current system and consist of extremely strong currents that sweep up the east coast of the USA. The abundance of data collected in this region has shown that the currents there are becoming slower and less resilient.
If a new Little Ice Age is predicted, what would the direct consequences be? To elucidate this enigma, let's take a look at what happened in Europe in the period between 1645 and 1715, referred to by Shakespeare as the Winter of Despair.
During the Little Ice Age, very harsh winters were observed, when the population of several European countries was decimated by hunger or cold. When it was discovered that traditional crops could not withstand the frequent frosts, King Louis XVI encouraged scientists to find more resistant crops that could satisfy the hunger of the French people. It was then that Parmentier began his fight to have the potato accepted as food by the upper classes.
Until then seen as poisonous or animal food, the potato came to be seen as the solution to the problem of hunger. To overcome the people's resistance, Parmentier, with the help of the king, used a series of tricks such as making the potato flower a fashionable adornment, putting the king's guards in charge of experimental potato fields as if they were the crown jewel, allowing potato seedlings to be stolen during the guards' shift changes, and inviting the elite of French society to countless dinners where the potato was served in different luxurious preparations.
In addition to research into alternative foods, there was also an increase in the use of slaves to generate the food and wealth needed to maintain the economy of countries whose economies were stagnating due to constant wars and the climate crisis.
The Little Ice Age was also a period of witch-hunting. According to Philipp Blom, “putting women on bonfires would somehow thaw the frozen earth of winter, make the rain fall gently on the crops in spring and cool the scorching summer sun”.
Finally, during the Little Ice Age there was a notable concentration of wealth, due in particular to the modification of the laws governing the use of agricultural land, concentrating it in the hands of feudal lords.At this time, the rich became richer and the poor even poorer.
In England, the consequences of climate change were particularly dramatic. Rivers such as the Thames (London) froze over during the winter, and many of the scenes of children skating on vast frozen plains recorded in oil paintings are from this period. In addition, it was during this period that the worst storm ever recorded on British soil occurred: “The Great Storm” (1703). The damage caused by the hurricane was equivalent to half the destruction caused by the great fire of 1666. The balance included thousands of deaths, the destruction of hundreds of ships, and hundreds of people being carried by the wind and water towards the North Sea despite little rain.
Was the decrease in magnetic activity on the Sun's surface enough to cause all this? It is believed not. Human activity was not capable of inducing climate change at that time. It is believed that they originated due to intense volcanic activity in the times preceding the mini ice age. Volcanism would have been responsible for an increase in the salinity of ocean waters, thus disrupting the balance of ocean currents in a similar way to what happens today.
Today we have a greater number of tools to combat the disastrous consequences of a climate crisis, but this does not justify the lack of initiative to reduce the human impact on its generation. So let's get to work.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
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